DOIONLINE 
DOIONLINE Publish In |
International Journal of Management and Applied Science (IJMAS)-IJMAS |
 Journal Home Volume Issue |
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Issue |
Volume-5,Issue-8 ( Aug, 2019 ) | |||||||||
Paper Title |
Integrating Time Series with Diffusion Models and Predicting Sales of Innovative Products: Case Study on iphone | |||||||||
Author Name |
Hsi-Tse Wang, Victor B. Kreng | |||||||||
Affilition |
Department of Information and E-commerce Management,TransWorld University, No.1221, Zhennan Rd., Douliu City, Yunlin County 640, Taiwan, ROC Department of Industrial and Information Management, National Cheng Kung University, 1 Ta-Shueh Road, Tainan, 70101, Taiwan, ROC | |||||||||
Pages |
27-31 | |||||||||
Abstract |
This study takes the sales volume of the smartphone, specifically the iPhone, as research subject. To improve the performance of the sales forecast, this study aims to integrate the Bass diffusion model with the model of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) so that forecasts can be conducted with results that have a high accuracy level. The predictive ability of the Bass model was accurate in the first three quarters, but over time, the forecasting accuracy slowly decreased. Considered with the ARIMA model for future prediction, the accuracy of the predicted values improved significantly by taking into account the autocorrelation between sequence values. Keywords - Diffusion Model; Time Series; ARIMA Model; Smartphone | |||||||||
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