DOIONLINE

DOIONLINE NO - IJAECS-IRAJ-DOIONLINE-6735

Publish In
International Journal of Advances in Electronics and Computer Science-IJAECS
Journal Home
Volume Issue
Issue
Volume-4,Issue-1  ( Jan, 2017 )
Paper Title
Power Consumption Model of a Microgrid Based on Utility-Providing History Data
Author Name
Junghoon Lee, Yunji Lee, Yeonju Han, Sumi Han, Daeun Ko, Hye-Jin Kim, Do Heonju, Gyung-Leen Park
Affilition
Dept. of Computer Science and Statistics, Jeju National University, Jeju-Do, Rep. of Korea, 63243 Infomind, Inc. Jeju-Do, Rep. of Korea, 63176
Pages
11-13
Abstract
This paper develops an energy consumption model for a microgrid based on utility-providing records and evaluates its accuracy. Built upon a data processing framework totally consisting of free open software, the well-known auto-regressive integrated moving average method is exploited for time series tracking. The series of quarter-hourly records during 60 days are fed to the modeling process, and the consumption of thenext 1/4, 1, 2, and 3 hours is predicted. The average prediction error of 15-minute-ahead forecast remains below 3.4 kwh, while that of the 3-hour-ahead forecast is extended to 12.37 kwh. Next, day-by-day measurement shows that the 15-minute-aheadprediction has about just 1.5 % for the whole period in spite ofa significant change between weekdays and weekends. This bigdata-based prediction can allow us to build a new intelligent energy application such as battery controllers and electricity trade coordinators. Keywords: Microgrid, Power Consumption History, ARIMA, Prediction Accuracy, Statistics Package.
  View Paper